Liquidity & Technical
Liquidity & Technical
Figures converted from JPY at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, multiples, RSI, MACD-histogram sign, percentage changes, and share counts are unitless and unchanged.
Liquidity is not the constraint — Murata is a deeply institutional name ($553M clears in five days at 20% ADV, supporting an $11.1B fund running a 5% position). The technical setup, however, is a vertical breakout into all-time-high territory with RSI 82.5, realized vol at the 95th-percentile of its ten-year range, and price 97.9% above the 200-day — a structurally bullish trend that is tactically over-extended.
1. Portfolio implementation verdict
5-day capacity @ 20% ADV ($M)
Largest 5d position (% mcap)
Supported AUM @ 5% wt ($M)
20d ADV / mkt cap
Technical scorecard (-6 to +6)
Liquidity is fine; the technical setup is the question. A fund running up to ~$11.1B AUM can implement a 5% position over five trading days at 20% ADV participation. The tape, however, is in a parabolic phase — RSI above 80, price up 234% in twelve months, all-time high set today — so the implementation question is timing, not capacity.
2. Price snapshot
Current price ($)
YTD return
1-year return
52-week position
30d realized vol
Beta is not surfaced in this run — the broad-market benchmark series (EWJ) was not delivered. Thirty-day realized volatility (49.6%) is shown in its place as the relevant risk gauge; it sits well above the ten-year 80th-percentile band of 38%, which is what matters for sizing.
3. The critical chart — full-history price with 50/200-day moving averages
Price is decisively above the 200-day — at $42.12 the share is 97.9% above its $21.28 200-day average, the widest spread in the chart's ten-year window. The most recent 50/200-day cross was a golden cross on 2025-09-18, which preceded a near-tripling of the share over the following eight months. Read this as a multi-month uptrend that has just entered a vertical phase, not as a fresh signal.
Golden cross 2025-09-18 ($19.03 USD) → price 2026-05-21 ($42.12). The trend bid that signal flagged has paid out 121% in eight months and is now extending into ATH territory on rising volume. (USD-return is smaller than JPY-return because the yen weakened over the period.)
4. Return profile
Returns shown are local-currency (JPY) total returns; they are the relevant gauge of relative strength in the home market regardless of the USD investor's FX overlay. The broad-market benchmark series (EWJ) was not delivered with this run, so a clean rebased relative-strength chart cannot be plotted. Absolute returns make the point on their own: +234% over twelve months at a time when the TSE Prime index has compounded in single digits per annum. The five-year rebased index for Murata alone closed today at 254.9 (vs 100 at t-756) — a 3-year compound that no broad Japanese benchmark can match, confirming the name has been an extreme outperformer.
5. Momentum — RSI and MACD
RSI(14) closed at 82.5 today — the highest reading in the last 18 months and well above the 70 overbought threshold. The MACD histogram is positive ($0.28) and re-expanding after a small February pullback, so the direction is unambiguous: momentum is bullish and accelerating. The combination — extreme RSI with rising MACD — is what you see at the start of a blow-off, not the end; it typically resolves in one of two ways: (a) sideways consolidation that lets RSI cool below 70 while price holds the $34-$38 zone, or (b) a sharp 10-20% pullback to the rising 50-day at $28.54. New entries that chase the print are paying for momentum at peak.
6. Volume, volatility, and sponsorship
The volume picture confirms the trend rather than fading it — 20-day ADV (13.1M shares) sits 21% above 60-day ADV (10.8M), and the late-April/May rally has been delivered on expanding turnover, not a low-volume drift. That said, realized volatility at 49.6% is in the "stressed" band — the ten-year 80th-percentile is 38% and the 50th-percentile is 26%. The historical pattern in the top-spike table is instructive: the three largest volume days were all down days, not up days; institutional unwinds at scale tend to be louder than the accumulation that built the position. A reader should price in that exit liquidity is asymmetric in a name this extended.
7. Institutional liquidity panel
ADV 20d (M shares)
ADV 20d ($M)
ADV 60d (M shares)
20d ADV / mkt cap
Auto-repair hid an invalid generated BigValue for liq_strip because Evidence validation still reported chart_percentage_scale_mismatch. See review/repair/report-auto-repair.json for the original component.
Murata trades roughly $462M per day on a $76.7B market cap (shares outstanding ex-treasury 1,820.3M × $42.12); 20-day ADV equals 0.60% of market cap, and annualised turnover at the current pace is 180% — extreme by Japanese large-cap standards and inflated by the recent surge. Sixty-day numbers, a fairer normal, give ADV of $313M and annual turnover near 149%.
Fund-capacity table
Liquidation runway
Median 60-day intraday range is 3.7% — elevated, well above the 2% threshold that flags meaningful impact cost. Practically, that means a fund running passive VWAP at 20% ADV in this regime should expect roughly 30-50 bp of frictional cost per leg; aggressive completion is materially more expensive. The right size for a 5-day clean entry at 20% participation is 0.72% of market cap (≈$553M); at the more conservative 10% ADV the limit drops to 0.36% / $276M. A 1%-of-mcap issuer-level position needs 7 trading days at 20% ADV or 14 days at 10% ADV — workable for a long-only fund, dangerous if size needs to come out in a single day.
8. Technical scorecard and stance
Stance — 3-to-6 month horizon: bullish on trend, neutral on timing. The structural read is unambiguously up: golden cross intact, all moving averages stacked positively, three-year relative strength off the charts, MLCC franchise leverage to AI-server build-outs giving the rally a defensible fundamental anchor. The tactical read is that the entry is being asked at peak euphoria — RSI 82.5, realized vol at the 95th percentile, top-of-tape position. Above $45.30 on a sustained close with ADV-confirming volume would mark a clean continuation breakout from the new ATH zone and re-open trend-following adds. Below $33.97 (recent breakout pivot / rising 20-day) invalidates the parabolic leg and opens a re-test of the 50-day at $28.54 — a level a patient buyer would prefer to see anyway. Liquidity is not the constraint; for institutions building exposure here the correct action is stage in over 4-8 weeks, weighted to weakness toward $34-$28.50, rather than chase the print at $42.12.